Thursday, 22 November 2012

By LuAnn LaSalle, The Canadian Press
Shares in Research In Motion spiked dramatically Thursday after days of steady gains, but analysts were still guarded about the potential success of the BlackBerry maker's new operating system.
On a day when the U.S. markets were closed, shares in Research In Motion surged 17.3 per cent to close at $12, up $1.77, its best performance in months on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Telecom analyst Troy Crandall predicted, however, that the BlackBerry 10 operating system has only a small probability of successfully taking consumers away from Apple and Android devices when it's released in early 2013.
"It's not that we're super hopeful that this is going to work out," said Crandall, of MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier.
"There is hope being built in that there's a chance it could work out."
RIM's new BlackBerry 10 operating system — which will be unveiled at a Jan. 30 event along with its new line of smartphones — is widely considered a make or break product launch for the Waterloo, Ont., smartphone maker.
Crandall said he doesn't consider it normal that shares in Research In Motion (TSX:RIM.TO - News) surged 17 per cent in a single day.
"Stocks should not have this type of volatility unless there's something extraordinary going on below the surface," he said.
"I think that's really what you're getting and a lot of that is coming from the short selling and it's magnified by the fact that the U.S. markets are closed."
Investors could be in for a "nasty little surprise" on Friday, when RIM shares will likely go up on New York's NASDAQ exchange, he said. More RIM shares are traded on the NASDAQ, and it's rare for a single stock to rise by 17 per cent on that exchange, Crandall said.
A more modest gain on the NASDAQ will likely pull down the price in Toronto, he added.
He said 95.3 million, or just more than 18 per cent, of RIM's 524 million outstanding shares are held by short sellers, who have essentially bet against RIM and lose money when the company's stock goes up.
"I think a lot of the short sellers are starting to get scared or they're actually just basically cancelling out their position, which means they have to buy it back which adds further upward pressure to the stock."
National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson also alluded to short selling. He increased his price target for the BlackBerry maker to US$15 from US$12.
"We think there is more money to be made ahead of the 2013 launch of BB10," Thompson said in a research note.
"Let's reiterate our short-term investment thesis. Buy the stock ahead of the BB10 product launch when we expect shipment estimates to increase, especially from U.S. brokers where a break in negativity could lead to short covering and ongoing stock momentum," Thompson said.
Thompson also noted that RIM's new management team is maintaining the BlackBerry smartphone subscriber base, managing costs and cash, and seemingly readying a February 2013 BB10 global product release, a month earlier than expected.
Thompson said an earlier launch should be beneficial to Research In Motion.
"The shipments boost reflects about one more month of BB10 product availability, plus a little extra for the positive sentiment building in the industry from our discussions."
Thompson said he has increased his estimate of BlackBerry shipments for fiscal 2014 to 35.5 million from 31.6 million, reflecting 4.5 per cent global market share, up from four per cent.
He said certification of the new BlackBerrys by wireless carriers is the key risk to his prediction and estimate of BlackBerry shipments. Carrier certification, which tests the new devices, can take time.
On Wednesday, shares in Research In Motion gained almost five per cent on the TSX even though it was reported that the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board had dropped the BlackBerry maker in favour of Apple's iPhone 5.
Earlier this week, a prominent tech analyst gave RIM's new operating system a small but improved chance of success.
Analyst Peter Misek of New York-based Jeffries & Company said Tuesday that he's still giving the BlackBerry 10 operating system only a 20 per cent to 30 per cent probability of success.


BlackBerry Jam Americas Keynote: Heins Delivering on Our Vision, Mobile Leadership and Strong Momentum [VIDEO]

Thorsten Heins on Stage at the BlackBerry Jam Americas Keynote
Yesterday I had the pleasure of attending the keynote at BlackBerry® Jam Americas, in San Jose, California, where Thorsten Heins clearly demonstrated that we are delivering on our vision for BlackBerry® 10 to a global audience of partners and developers.
Thanking our partners for bringing out the best in what BlackBerry is and what BlackBerry will be, Heins told attendees we’re at the start of a new era in mobile computing. “We are expanding beyond traditional mobile communications,” he said. “And we want to leverage what you do, and give you an expanded platform to build upon.”

BlackBerry 10 Ready for the Future

At the core of BlackBerry 10 is the idea of Flow. Flow lets you move easily from task to task. It lets you check in on your conversations, wherever they may be. It doesn’t get in your way. Gone are home buttons and the need to exit an app to open a new one. BlackBerry 10 is designed to make you more productive and more efficient. With BlackBerry 10, we’re expanding our leadership in communications, NFC, mobile social media, as well as collaboration in the enterprise.
Take our position in social communications as an example. BlackBerry Messenger, a platform used by 60 million people, is going to grow and flourish with BlackBerry 10. There are also over 60 million BlackBerry users on Facebook® and tens of millions using other social platforms. BlackBerry 10 will bring all these conversations together in the BlackBerry Hub allowing you to easily move from conversation to conversation with the swipe of one finger.

Driving Innovation Behind BlackBerry 10: You

After thousands of hours talking to you: our developers, our customers, it is clear what works, what frustrates you, and what we can do to make your mobile experience more enjoyable. You’ve told us you’re looking for something easier, more efficient – something that helps you get things done. We’ve listened.
“BlackBerry users will be able to do more, enjoy more and live more,” said Heins. Our customers are about action. “We have elegantly woven together mobile life by bringing together communications, the internet, people and events, multimedia, and social networks like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Foursquare and even more, to give users immediate access to the information they need and want. And then we gave them the ability to take action on that information.”
Shortly after, Thorsten invited Vivek Bhardwaj from the product team to the stage to provide an in-depth demo of Flow. We caught up with the product team at the show and got a sneak peek for ourselves. Check out all the action in our post here.

Building Strong Momentum and Excitement

Carriers and developers alike are excited about BlackBerry 10. Heins and the leadership team have been on tour around the globe, meeting with carriers and partners. He said the response has been outstanding.
“Developers, more than anybody, have embraced the power and potential of BlackBerry 10,” said Heins. “We are just a few short months away. BlackBerry 10 is on track… By showing the world how BlackBerry 10 unites elegant devices with a flowing user experience, that is based on a future-proof platform and strong alignment with carriers, we are making believers out of our partners.“
Thorsten Heins Thanks Developers on Stage at BlackBerry Jam Americas
He continued “we understand that the BlackBerry platform was not always easy to develop for, but those days are gone. You told us what you needed, we listened and we made changes. You stuck with us and we thank you for your support and your enthusiasm. We will succeed together.

Leadership and Commitment

Since taking over as CEO, Heins knew there was a need for change. He’s made the decisions and taken the steps to build a strong future for BlackBerry. “Our amazing executive leadership team includes marketing, telecommunications and technology veterans from around the world,” he said. “These teams and all of the remarkable people at RIM are focused on the things that we – and we alone – do best. That focus on what we do best – will not change, ever.”
Thorsten closed by reflecting on our commitment and strength in mobile computing moving forward. “We must understand how the years ahead will see changes in the way we live and work that are no less significant than the changes we saw in the last decade. No one will argue that the changes in communications over the past years were in large part because of BlackBerry,” he said. “…We are convinced that the BlackBerry 10 platform will shape the next 10 years as profoundly and as positively as BlackBerry shaped the last 10. To do that, we are listening. We are focused. We are excited about our future. We are fighting. Join us.”
No doubt, the energy in this speech and in the room sets the tone for BlackBerry moving forward. Attendees were pumped up and excited about the future. Tell us what you think, Team BlackBerry. Are you ready, are you excited for BlackBerry 10? Let us know in the comments.

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