Intraday Market Thoughts
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IMT ARCHIVES
MidEast Ceasefire, Onto China PMI, New Premium InsightsNovember 21, 2012 18:06 ET : MidEast Ceasefire, Onto China PMI, New Premium InsightsA ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict along with better US economic data boosted sentiment in US trading. The pound was the best performer while the yen tumbled to fresh six month lows. The main release on the Asia-Pacific calendar is the China flash PMI. Latest Premium Insights Preview China PMI, Eurozone Flash PMIs with 2 charts on CADJPY and EURJPY. See more below.Egypt brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday, raising hopes for a lasting peace. Market watchers are skeptical and the price of oil remained higher after a brief dip. Overall risk sentiment was better as US traders headed out for the Thanksgiving holiday. Initial jobless claims fell to 410K which was in line with expectations. The prior week was skewed higher by Hurricane Sandy. The Markit US manufacturing PMI also raised hopes as it climbed to 52.4 compared to the 51.0 consensus. One negative surprise was the final revision to the U of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, down to 82.7 from 84.9. It was still the best reading since the crisis. The market is fixated on the yen as more skeptics become believers that the turn in the yen is finally here. That might be true but for the moment, yen crosses are beginning to look stretched. GBP/JPY has climbed for six straight days, gaining nearly 550 pips. The key to sentiment in the day ahead is the HSBC China flash PMI. There is no consensus estimate but the prior reading was 49.5. It remains unclear if Chinese growth has begun to accelerate once again. On Wednesday, a top executive at mining giant Vale warned that Chinese growth is slowing. New dual trades on EURUSD, with insights on EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDJPY, gold and oil. Direct access todays Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=695 Non-subscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ -AB |
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Euro Frozen on Greek Impasse, Jobless Claims Next
November 21, 2012 07:22 ET : No decision from Eurogroup, next meeting on 11/26; MPC voted 9:0 on rates and 8:1 on QE; German auction. Market turns to jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI and UoM consumer confidence revision.Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see below the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side.The common currency dropped nearly 90 points during the Asian session after yet another Eurogroup meeting ended with no agreement on Greek aid. EZ finance ministers will meet again on Monday 11/26. Even though the Eurogroup head J. C. Juncker attempted to calm the markets by saying that the meeting was only interrupted to allow more technical work, German finance minister Schaeuble said there was no agreement among the finance ministers. Nevertheless, EURUSD recovered from 1.2735 to 1.2800
The minutes from the latest MPC meeting revealed unanimous voting to keep rates on hold at 0.5% but a 8:1 split regarding QE. Only David Miles voted for GBP 25 bln in further easing. The MPC noted that it is unlikely to cut the Bank rate in the foreseeable future. Public sector net borrowing declined in October to GBP 6.5 bln from September's GBP 9.9 bln. GBPUSD trades around 1.5910 which is about 20 points below session high.
The JPY continues to decline on anticipation of more aggressive monetary easing. The reported barrier at 82.00 was broken and the pair currently trades around 82.25
Germany allotted EUR 3.253 bln of 10 year bund vs. EUR 4 bln target. The average yield declined to 1.4% vs. previous 1.56% and cover was unchanged at 1.5.
Because of the tomorrow's Thanksgiving holidays, jobless claims will be published today at 8:30 am ET. They are seen at 415K after soaring to 439K the week earlier. Markit manufacturing PMI comes at 9:00 am and it is anticipated to rise slightly in November to 51.2 from 51.0 and finally the university of Michigan consumer sentiment is due at 9:55 am and it is expected to be revised lower to 84.3 from the initial estimate 84.9.
Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see here the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ p_sub01/ USDJPY%20W%20M%20Q%20Nov%2014%202012.jpg_640W.gif
Patrik Urban
No Promises From Bernanke
November 20, 2012 19:32 ET : Chairman Bernanke didnt offer any clear signals about what the Fed will do when Operation Twist expires at year end, leaving the market disappointed. The pound was the days best performer while NZD and AUD lagged. Eurozone ministers continue a meeting in Brussels on Greece. A new Premium Insights edition will be released in 2 hrs from now.The market was expecting a hint at what Bernanke would do to replace the long-term Treasury buying from Operation Twist but he was mum in his speech. He spoke about the potential economic consequences of the fiscal cliff and said unemployment was 2-2.5 percentage points above potential.
The employment comment was slightly dovish but the stock market slipped afterwards. The forex was relatively involatile throughout US trading with the euro stuck in a 1.2784-1.2810 range.
USD/JPY strengthened to a marginal fresh 7-month high at 81.76 as LDP leader Abe continued to pledge more extreme monetary policy if he wins the election.
Housing remains the bright spot in the US economy as starts jumped to their highest since 2008. The pace of 894K was much higher than 840K expected.
The focus remains on Eurozone meetings as officials try to hammer out a sustainable deal for Greece. Midday headlines suggested interest on official loans to Greece could be cut to 0.25%.
The calendar highlights include the Australian Sept leading index at 2330 GMT and Japanese October trade data 20 minutes later. At 0500 GMT, Japan will publish its November economic report.
-AB
Shrugging Bernanke on EU-IMF Impasse
November 20, 2012 13:53 ET : Markets are shrugging Bernankes speech to the NY Economic Club where he appeared to maintain the status quo over asset purchases. http://www.cityindex.co.uk/ market-analysis/ market-news/ 2520662012/ shrugging-bernanke-on-eu-imf-impasse/Euro Shrugs France Downgrade, Onto Bernanke
November 20, 2012 08:00 ET : French downgrade; EZ finance ministers meeting; no changes from BOJ; German PPI lower; Spanish auction. Real estate market data and Lacker and Bernanke speeches ahead. Bernankes speech at the NY Econ Club will be of particular importance as these annual appearances are known to cause volatility. 5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades.EURUSD faces a confluence of resistance at 1.2820s 200-DMA (previous support now a resistance) and trendline resistance from Oct 17. The common currency continues to trade around 1.28 despite the downgrade by Moody's that cut French AAA rating one notch to Aaa1 with negative outlook. The downgrade is likely to affect EFSF/ESM rating as well.
Markets are awaiting a decision from the Eurozone finance ministers who are meeting in Brussels to determine the release of the next tranche of Greek aid.
USDJPY slipped slightly to 81.15 after the BOJ left rates unchanged between 0-0.1% and did not announce any new easing. Focus turns to the election on 12/16 and the next BOJ meeting on 12/19 when new easing is likely. USDJPY recovered the losses and trades around 81.40.
In other news, German PPI was flat in October m/m but the annual print slowed to 1.5% from 1.7% and Spain sold 12 and 18 month bonds worth EUR 4.94 bln, above its EUR 3.5-4.5 bln target.
The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with building permits that are expected to decline in October to 0.87M from previous 0.89M while housing starts are anticipated to fall to 0.84M from 0.87M.
Markets will also focus on the Richmond FED president and the FOMC member Jeffrey Lacker's speech on monetary policy that begins at 9:00 am and especially on the FED chairman Bernanke's speech on economic recovery and policy that is scheduled to begin at 12:15 pm. Audience questions are expected so the volatility could heighten even after the speech has concluded.
5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades. 3 trades were stopped out as final targets were missed by 10-15 pips. Find out the rationale of these trading ideas and understand the breakdown of multi-time frame stochastic analysis. Direct access to the latest Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
US Housing and Euro Continue Higher
November 19, 2012 18:18 ET : The euro climbed above 1.28 as risk trades rallied on Monday in US trading. The commodity currencies were the top performers while the US dollar lagged. The minutes of the November RBA meeting are the highlight of the upcoming session. 5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades.Positive risk sentiment broadly weighed on the US dollar, boosting the euro through the 200-day moving average, albeit marginally. It's the first time above the 200dma since the pair broke down on Nov 1.
Hopes for a solution to the fiscal cliff and a further bailout for Greece were the main drivers but upbeat housing numbers added to the momentum.
The NAHB housing market index climbed to 46 compared to 41 expected. It was the best reading since May 2006. Existing home sales were also slightly ahead of forecast at 4.79m, although the National Association of Realtors warned that Nov and Dec sales could be skewed by the hurricane.
European leaders are meeting in Brussels on Tuesday on Greece. Dow Jones reports that Greece has rejected a Troika request for 20,000 additional public sector job cuts. At the moment, optimism about a Greek deal is high but that could change in an instant. Even if the funds are dispersed, any troubles in Spain could trigger risk aversion.
In Asian trading, the focus will be on the RBA as the minutes of the Nov meeting are released at 0030 GMT. The market is undecided about a Dec rate cut because the Nov statement was non-committal. A clearer indication in the minutes would swing the market (and the AUD) strongly in one way or the other.
The BOJ also starts its two day meeting as policies continue to stoke the fires of more activist policies to defeat deflation and the strong yen.
5 longs from last week's Premium Insights hit all targets, including both EURUSD trades. 3 trades were stopped out as final targets were missed by 10-15 pips. Find out the rationale of these trading ideas and understand the breakdown of multi-time frame stochastic analysis. Direct access to the latest PremIum Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
-AB
Euro onto Greece Resolution, PMIs, IFO
November 19, 2012 10:30 ET : EURUSD starts week on a firm note, attempting to post 2 winning weeks in a row after 3 straight weekly losses. While the foundation remains underpinned above 1.2650 (100-day moving average), upside is ... Click here for full analysis. http://www.cityindex.co.uk/ market-analysis/ market-news/ 2465142012/ euro-awaits-greece-resolution-ifo/EURUSD Nears 1.28; Existing Home Sales Next
November 19, 2012 08:06 ET : Riskier assets gain; JPY retraces gains ahead of BOJ; Italian industrial orders fell. Market awaits existing home sales. Remaining Premium longs for EURUSD await final target at 1.2840. Premium we posted below the 2 charts for cable to explain the rationale for the latest Premium positions, 1 of which hit all targets. Also, 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.The current trading week that is shorter due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holidays started on a positive note. Risk trades were pushing higher during Asia and throughout the London session. European equities are gaining over 1% and the relative strength winner is NZD while USD is the weakest.
Friday's optimistic comments on the progress regarding the fiscal cliff along with chatter that Greece will be given the next tranche of aid at tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting underpinned the riskier assets. However, the uncertainty that comes from the ongoing tensions in the middle ease could easily change the whole market sentiment around.
USDJPY is losing a portion of its recent gains ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision as it trades around 81.15. New easing seems more likely to be announced at the following BOJ meeting on December 19th after the election in mid December than tomorrow. Further retracement therefore seems likely. Key short term support is around 80.40.
Italian industrial orders fell sharply in September by 4.2% after growing 2.7% in August. On annual basis the third largest economy of the Eurozone lost 12.8% of orders. EURUSD trades around 1.2770.
The sole item on the US data calendar is existing home sales that are expected to rise marginally to 4.76M in October from previous 4.75M.
1 of 2 Premium cable longs hit all targets. Here are the 2 cable charts used to help explain the rationale http://www.ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ p_sub01/ GBPUSD%20D%20W%20%20Nov%2014%20Oct%2012.jpg_640W.gif The piece also focuses on the timing of the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new gold, and GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/
Patrik Urban
Between a Rock and a Cliff
November 18, 2012 19:55 ET : The fiscal cliff is the dominant theme in markets but signs are beginning to emerge of a compromise. Last week, the Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged badly. CFTC weekly positioning data showed a fresh wave of euro shorts. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.On Friday, a WSJ story suggested the White House was in talks to replace the year-end spending sequester. Later, Republican leaders put tax hikes on the table as part of a deal, or at least a short-term deal.
The reports boosted sentiment, sparking turnarounds in the commodity currencies. USD/CAD hit a three-month high at 1.0056 before reversing
back to parity. AUD/USD tripped stops below 1.03 and then climbed to 1.0350. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%
USD/JPY was the focus of the week as it rallied despite the risk off tone. Japanese elections were the trigger for the move but market participants have been waiting for opportunities to buy USD/JPY for months. They have been burned many times before so the patient money may wait for definitive signs.
One of those signs could come on a break above 81.50. That level capped trading on Thursday and Friday and is also the 61.8% retracement of the March-Sept selloff. A break points to an eventual re-test of 84.00.
CFTC Commitments of Traders
The weekly data on speculative positioning showed a renewed emphasis on euro shorts. The June cycle low was -211K so there is still plenty of room on the downside. Yen shorts covered but likely jumped back in late in the week.
EUR -84K vs -67K prior
JPY -30K vs -40K prior
GBP +8K vs +19K prior
AUD +68K vs +60K prior
CAD +66K vs +75K prior
NZD +19K vs +19K prior
The data is collected at the close on Tuesday.
Gold survived one of the 2 stop and is nearing the 1700 figure. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
-AB
Chinese Warn Of Fiscal Cliff; TICS Data & IP Is Next
November 16, 2012 07:34 ET : Chinese warning of fiscal cliff; EZ current account declined but trade account rose; Japanese lower house dissolved. Focus is on TIC flows; capacity utilization and industrial production. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.The greenback is higher across the board in the ongoing session. European equities are losing around 0.5% and the relative strength winner is USD while NZD is the weakest.
The fiscal cliff is in the spotlight again and it is unlikely to change any time soon. Chinese vice finance minister Guangyao said that a failure to solve it would be disastrous to the US, it would be a serious shot to the world economy and it would drag Chinese growth by 1.2 percentage points, MNI reports.
On the data front we learned that Eurozone current account balance declined in September to EUR 0.8 bln from EUR 10.9 bln while the trade surplus rose to EUR 11.3 bln from EUR 8.9 bln.
In other news, UK chancellor Osborne is about to start the second round of interviews for BOE's governorship and Japanese lower house was dissolved which paves way for elections on 12/16.
The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with Canadian foreign securities purchases that are expected to rise to CAD 7.45 bln in September from previous CAD 6.9 bln. US TIC flows are due 30 minutes later and they are seen lower at USD 75 bln from USD 90 bln.
Capacity utilization will flash on traders' screens at 9:15 am and it is anticipated marginally higher in October at 78.4% from 78.3% while industrial production is expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.4%.
This week's last risk event is the FOMC member Dennis Lockhart's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy that is scheduled to start at 3:45 pm ET.
Gold survived one of the 2 stop and is nearing the 1700 figure. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patril Urban
Sandy has an Echo
November 15, 2012 18:16 ET : Thursdays US economic data slumped badly but Hurricane Sandy was the likely culprit. The euro was the best performer for the second consecutive day while the yen lagged badly. The Asia-Pacific calendar is bare except for a speech from the Feds Dudley who could hint that QE3 will be expanded to Treasuries in the new year. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. See more below.US initial jobless claims surged to 439K compared to 375K expected but officials said that the superstorm was probably behind the surge, which was the largest in three years. Similarly, the Philly Fed fell to -10 from +5 due to manufacturing shutdowns in the area.
One slightly positive surprise was the Empire Fed, which was at -5.2 compared to -8 expected. US CPI figures were close to expected at +2.2% y/y.
It will be difficult to get an accurate reading on US economic data points in the coming weeks due to the hurricane.
The euro briefly topped 1.2800 but was capped by the 200-day moving average at 1.2811 and later slipped back to 1.2760. An implausible report suggesting Spain would bypass the OMT by going directly to the IMF was denied.
Rallies in the yen crosses were the dominant move for the second day, even with risk trades struggling. The market latched on to comments from LDP leader Abe who said that if he wins the election he will instruct the BOJ to do unlimited QE in order to beat deflation.
The USD/JPY rally stalled just short of 81.50, which is the 61.8% retracement of the March-September decline.
5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/
-AB
Eurozone in Recession, Yen Damaged, US Jobless & CPI Next
November 15, 2012 07:37 ET : JPY falls further; European GDP above expectations; UK retail sales disappointed. Busy session ahead includes CPI, jobless claims; empire state and Philly fed manufacturing and Bernanke's speech. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. See more below.The common currency pushed higher on rumor that Spain would ask the IMF for a credit line instead of requesting an official bailout. Spanish economy minister rejected this notion and added that Spain has not decided whether to request ECB aid.
JPY pairs continue to push higher on comments from Japan's main opposition leader Shinzo Abe who wants to work with the BOJ to reverse the trend of JPY strength and who also suggested that the BOJ could set interest rates below zero to enhance lending. Abe is leading in polls and could become the next PM.
A slew of Q3 GDP data was released during the European session. French and German GDP both rose 0.2% which was better than analysts expected. On the other hand Italian GDP contracted -0.2% and the whole Eurozone economy fell 0.1%. Nevertheless even these results were slightly above expectations. Eurozone CPI remained steady at 2.5% and the core stayed at 1.5%
UK retailers experienced the largest sales decline in six months as the volume fell 0.8% in October after growing 0.5% in the prior month. GBPUSD initially weakened to 1.5827 but quickly recovered and trades around 1.5850. EURGBP trades higher around 0.8055.
Busy US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with CPI that is expected to rise to 2.1% in October from previous 2.0% y/y. The core figure is seen steady at 2.0%. Jobless claims are seen higher at 372K from last week's 355K and empire state manufacturing is seen lower in November at -7.2 from previous -6.2. Philly FED manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated to decline to 1.1 from previous 5.7.
Markets are also awaiting the FED chairman Bernanke's speech on housing and mortgage markets in Atlanta that is scheduled to start at 1:20 pm ET.
5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/
Patrik Urban
QE4 Coming, Japan Votes, 5 Charts Added to Premium Insights
November 14, 2012 17:49 ET : A soft US retail sales report and missile attacks in the Middle East sparked another round of risk aversion despite dovish Fed talk. The S&P 500 slumped 1.5% but FX was relatively subdued with the euro leading and yen lagging. Japan called a national election for Dec 16 with leaders pledging to weaken the yen. 5 new charts were added to tonights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. See more below.US consumers may be heading into the holiday season on a weak note. October retail sales excluding autos and gas fell 0.3%, much worse than the 0.4% rise expected. The Commerce Department couldnt estimate the impact of Hurricane Sandy but said there were indications it had positive and negative effects.
In a separate report, Fitch said US credit card delinquencies rose for the first time in a year.
Oil prices rose and sentiment deteriorated after Israel assassinated a Hamas leader and shelled the Gaza strip. There were no immediate signs of the violence spreading to other countries but risks are certainly heightened.
The minutes of the October FOMC meeting showed that a number of members favored additional Treasury purchases when Operation Twist expires at the end of the year. If fiscal cliff risks continue to rise and stocks continue falling, expect an open-ended QE announcement.
The euro rose to 1.2780 after the minutes but later slipped back to 1.2730.
The yen weakened throughout the session despite its safe haven status. The election will be fought partially on which party can end the era of yen strength. Expect grand promises to spook the market.
The events on the Asia-Pacific calendar include Australian consumer inflation expectations and new vehicle sales.
5 new charts were added to tonights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non- subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/
-AB
Latest Premium Insights on Yen Pairs
November 14, 2012 15:36 ET : Focusing on Yen pairs, and timing the new and existing EURUSD as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=694 Non subscribers can have a free trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/Yen Hit Ahead of Another Japan Regime Change
November 14, 2012 12:31 ET : Japanese PM Nodas indications that he could dissolve the House of Representatives on Friday if the opposition agreed to plans to reduce the number of seats and to lower lawmakers salaries weighed on the yen across the board. Wat it means for JPY pairs and why? http://www.cityindex.co.uk/ market-analysis/ market-news/ 2218442012/ yen-hurts-ahead-of-another-regime-change/UK Jobless Edges up, US Sales Down, FOMC Next
November 14, 2012 08:48 ET : UK labor market data mixed; MPC sees higher CPI; Eurozone industrial production fell; JPY declines due to politics. The surprise decline in US retail didnt stop S&P futures from gaining 5 pts at time of writing. Market turns to the FOMC meeting minutes. Latest Premium Insights are due at the London close.Both GBPUSD sorts hit all targets, while 1 of 2 EURUSD dual trades hit all targets and the 2nd in progress from the latest Premium Insights.The greenback was initially losing across the board except JPY but as the session progressed, the buck was able to regain lost ground and currently trades stronger against most majors. European equities are losing around 0.3% and the weakest currency is JPY.
UK jobless claims rose sharply in October to 10.1K from previous 0.8K which is the fastest increase in over a year. At the same time, the ILO unemployment rate ticked lower to 7.8% from 7.9%. The BOE inflation report showed the MPC adjusted its CPI forecasts higher - CPI should reach 1.8% in two years and 1.9% in three years. GBPUSD initially pushed higher to 1.5901 but quickly sold off to current 1.5865.
JPY declined across the board on PM Noda's comments that he could dissolve the House of Representatives on Friday if the opposition agreed to plans to reduce the number of the seats and lower lawmakers' salaries, MNI reports. USDJPY pushed above the 80.00 handle and EURJPY touched 102.00.
In other news, Swiss ZEW economic expectations improved marginally to -27.9 from -28.9; Eurozone industrial production dropped 2.5% in September after growing 0.9% in August and Greek 3Q GDP contracted 7.2% after falling 6.3% in Q2. EURUSD trades around 1.2735.
US October retail sales fell 0.3% worse than the expected decline of 0.2% following revised increase of 1.3%. Sales less autos were flat vs the expected +0.2% following 1 .2% increase. Oct PPI fell 0.2% vs ex +0.2% following the oil driven +1.1%. Markets will then wait for the latest FOMC minutes that are due at 2:00 pm.
Both GBPUSD sorts hit all targets, while 1 of 2 EURUSD dual trades hit all targets and the 2nd in progress. USDJPY stopped out. 1 of 2 CADJPY stopped out, the other in progress. AUDUSD remains in progress. EURJPY stopped out. GBPUSD hit all targets. EURGBP stopped out. (stopped out by 20 pips). 1 gold short stopped out after missing final limit by $3 and the other short remains in progress. 1 silver in progress. 1 oil long stopped out. DIRECT ACCCESS http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/ access/ ?a=693 Nonsubscribers can click here to join http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/ sub01/
Patrik Urban
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