The Chinese stocks (mostly ADR) that the China ABCT ETF Fund (ABCT) is tracking and/or considering for investment are as follows:
Baidu (BIDU), China Mobile (CHL), PetroChina (PTR), Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH), Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC), Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN), and Sina Corp.(SINA).
See below for some additional supporting documents and references.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/171232-the-complete-list-of-chinese-adr-stocks
The Complete List of Chinese ADR Stocks
November 4, 2009
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includes: ACH, ACTS, AMCN, ATAI, ATV, BIDU, CEA, CEDU, CEO, CHA, CHL, CHU, CISG, CMEDQ.OB, CMM, CNTF, CPC, CSUN, CTRP, CYOU, DGW, DL, EDU, EJ, FMCN, GA, GAME, GRO, GRRF, GSH, GU, HMIN, HNP, HRAY, HSOL, JASO, JOBS, JRJC, KONG, LDK, LFC, LFT, LONG, LTON, MR, NCTY, NED, NINE, NPD, NTES, PTR, PWRD, SCR, SHI, SNDA, SNP, SOL, SPRD, SSRX, STP, STV, TCM, TSL, VIMC, VISN, VIT, WH, WX, XIN, XSEL, YGE, YZC, ZNH
ADR Name | Ticker | Industry |
---|---|---|
3SBIO | SSRX | Pharma. & Biotech. |
51job | JOBS | Support Services |
Acorn | ATV | General Retailers |
Actions Semiconductor | ACTS | Tech.Hardware&Equip. |
Agria Corporation | GRO | Food Producers |
Airmedia | AMCN | Media |
Aluminum Corporation of China | ACH | Indust.Metals&Mining |
ATA Inc | ATAI | General Retailers |
Baidu | BIDU | Software&ComputerSvc |
Changyou.com | CYOU | Software&ComputerSvc |
ChemSpec International | CPC | Chemicals |
China Digital TV Holding | STV | Electron.&ElectricEq |
China Distance Education | DL | Support Services |
China Eastern Airlines | CEA | Travel & Leisure |
China Finance Online | JRJC | Software&ComputerSvc |
China GrenTech | GRRF | Tech.Hardware&Equip. |
China Life Insurance | LFC | Life Insurance |
China Mass Media | CMM | Media |
China Medical Technologies | CMED | HealthCareEquip.&Ser |
China Mobile | CHL | Mobile Telecom. |
China National Offshore Oil-CNOOC | CEO | Oil & Gas Producers |
China Nepstar Chain Drugstore | NPD | Food &Drug Retailers |
China Petroleum & Chemical | SNP | Oil & Gas Producers |
China Southern Airlines | ZNH | Travel & Leisure |
China Sunergy | CSUN | Alternative Energy |
China Techfaith Wireless Communication | CNTF | Tech.Hardware&Equip. |
China Telecom | CHA | Fixed Line Telecom. |
China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited | CHU | Mobile Telecom. |
ChinaEdu | CEDU | General Retailers |
CNInsure | CISG | Nonlife Insurance |
CTrip.com International | CTRP | Travel & Leisure |
Duoyuan Global Water | DGW | Gas,H20&Multiutility |
E-House (China) | EJ | Real Estate Inv&Serv |
eLong | LONG | Travel & Leisure |
Focus Media | FMCN | Media |
Giant Interactive Group | GA | Leisure Goods |
Guangshen Railway | GSH | Travel & Leisure |
Gushan Environmental Energy | GU | Alternative Energy |
Home Inns & Hotels Management | HMIN | Travel & Leisure |
Huaneng Power International | HNP | Electricity |
Hurray! | HRAY | Mobile Telecom. |
JA Solar | JASO | Alternative Energy |
KongZhong | KONG | Mobile Telecom. |
LDK Solar | LDK | Alternative Energy |
Linktone | LTON | Mobile Telecom. |
Longtop Financial Technologies | LFT | Software&ComputerSvc |
Mindray Medical International | MR | HealthCareEquip.&Ser |
Netease.com | NTES | Software&ComputerSvc |
New Oriental Education & Technology | EDU | General Retailers |
Ninetowns Internet Technology | NINE | Software&ComputerSvc |
Noah Education | NED | Leisure Goods |
Perfect World | PWRD | Leisure Goods |
PetroChina | PTR | Oil & Gas Producers |
ReneSola | SOL | Alternative Energy |
Shanda Games | GAME | Media |
Shanda Interactive Entertainment | SNDA | Leisure Goods |
Simcere Pharmaceutical | SCR | Pharma. & Biotech. |
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical | SHI | Chemicals |
Solarfun Power | SOLF | Alternative Energy |
Spreadtrum Communications | SPRD | Tech.Hardware&Equip. |
Suntech Power | STP | Alternative Energy |
The9 | NCTY | Leisure Goods |
Tongjitang Chinese Medicines | TCM | Pharma. & Biotech. |
Trina Solar | TSL | Alternative Energy |
VanceInfo Technologies | VIT | Software&ComputerSvc |
Vimicro International | VIMC | Tech.Hardware&Equip. |
VisionChina Media | VISN | Media |
WSP Holdings | WH | OilEquip.,Serv.&Dist |
WuXi Pharmatech | WX | Pharma. & Biotech. |
Xinhua Sports & Entertainment | XSEL | Media |
Xinyuan Real Estate | XIN | Real Estate Inv&Serv |
Yanzhou Coal Mining | YZC | Mining |
Yingli Green Energy | YGE | Alternative Energy |
http://seekingalpha.com/article/232133-why-is-xinyuan-real-estate-so-cheap
Why Is Xinyuan Real Estate So Cheap?
I can think of two reasons that could possibly cause the huge difference:
- This company is a fraud
- China real estate is overheated; it is going to crash and burn.
Xinyuan’s Business
According to Yahoo Finance:
Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in residential real estate development business, as well as provides property management services in the People’s Republic of China.Xinyuan focuses on developing properties in the second and third tier city market in China, and its strategy is not to get involved in the land holding, but rather fast real estate development and fast sales.
Xinyuan was properly IPOed at the end of the year 2007 at $14 per share, collecting $229m after expenses. Its leading underwriter was Merrill Lynch, and its auditor is Ernst & Young.
Very few Chinese real estate-related companies are listed in the U.S. market. We have E-house (EJ), a real estate sales agent company, and China Real Estate Information Company (CRIC), a real estate information and commercial company listed. Recently SouFun (SFUN), a real estate marketing company successfully IPOed on the Nasdaq. Its stock priced at the top of the offer range and jumped 73% on the first day of trading.
In this sector, Xinyuan is nearly the only one that does house developing in China. This listing is a little odd as the major players in this market such as Vanke and Poly are listed in the China A-share market, while companies like Evergrade and Sino-Ocean are listed in the HK market. China A-share market and HK market investors understand the Chinese homebuilders much better and thus become the ideal places for listing. Listed in the States, Xinyuan looks like an orphan. But here may be where mispricing comes into play.
Xinyuan Financials
Here are some basic data for this company for the quarter ending in June.
- Outstanding ADR count: 76m ADR
- Stock Price: $3.0/ADR, compared to book value of $6.25/ADR
- Market Cap: $228m
- Real Estate Under Development: $636m, or $8.4/ADR
- Cash: $167m, or $2.2/ADR
- Debt: $326m, or $4.3/ADR
- Equity $475m, or $6.25/ADR, compared to the stock price of $3.0/ADR
- Gross Margin: 21%
- Net Margin: 9.4%
However, Xinyuan’s stock price almost never performed very well in the past three years. It has spent most of its time trading down except for the first half of 2009, in which it traded up from $2 to $7. So where is the problem?
Can XIN be a fraud?
We are all aware that there have been many Chinese stock fraud cases being exposed, which also caused the multiples for Chinese small cap stocks to shrink rapidly. Some frauds have been very sophisticated that they fooled the author as well. However, if we can find one legitimate one, we may be able to buy legitimate company at really attractive valuation.
For Xinyuan, I have the following evidences to work against fraud:
- Merrill Lynch brought XIN to the market.
- Ernst & Young audited its book and issued unqualified opinion to BOTH its financial statements AND the effectiveness of its internal control. We are yet to discover a Chinese company having met this qualification but also committing fraud.
- It has been listed on the NYSE for nearly 3 years.
- Its properties and related news can be easily tracked down with reputable Chinese real estate websites, such as SouFun, Sina (SINA), and Sohu (SOHU).
- Its IPO proceeds, $229m, is already more than its current market value, $228m.
- It did have rough years through the financial crisis, and it had to write off part of Suzhou project in the first quarter of 2009 to reflect the overpaid land price. But the China real estate market has been strong so that the same Suzhou project is more likely making even. Overall XIN has been making profit for each of its past projects.
- It did have hardship under the government regulation. While Xinyuan’s second quarter results got off to a strong start in April, the government policies issued in mid-April resulted in a significant reduction in sales at many of Xinyuan’s projects in May and June.
Is China’s real estate market going to bust?
I am not into the debate of whether China’s Real Estate market is going to have a severe problem in a few years. But what we do know is that the real estate market saw an increase in price and volume for the past August and September.
Even if we write off 10% of the book value of Xinyuan out of a pessimistic economic view, we are only down by 84 cents per share. We still have a book value of $5.4, much higher than the current market price. In other words, the margin of safety is high.
What is more, this company has gone through some difficult times already and has proven that it can survive under adverse environment.
Communications with the management
With the book value discrepancies in mind, one natural thought coming up is that someone can really do an arbitrage trade on this, preferably the management. If the company is willing to shrink the operation and use the saved working capital for the purpose of stock buyback, we should see immediate effect on the stock market price. Of course that is just a thought, and a good management, if doing things right, should just stick to their practices and increase the value of the company, disregarding the short term stock market price. This is exactly what I have found in terms of the management.
Tom Gurnee, XIN's CFO, has been very open to questions. So far the company is mostly paying attention to how to use the cash correctly in responding to the government policy changes. Late 2009, the company purchased new lands for new projects after the financial crisis, but the government again tightened the policy in April/May to curb the rapidly rising housing price, so the company is again on the cautious front not to spend on expanding into new projects. However, the company is not thinking of any stock repurchase to arbitrage the difference between its book value and the market price.
Tom also mentioned that one fund invested in the company is due to winding up and distribution by the end of this year. Even though the fund is not ‘desperate’ to unwind its position, the fund may not be price elastic nevertheless. Tom believes that once the overhang is over, the market is going to price the stock correctly.
Valuation
No fancy formula is used to value Xinyuan. Based on my understanding of the Chinese real estate market, I believe that the book value, $6.25, should be a very conservative valuation of the company. The NPV of this company is roughly at $7 to $7.25, assuming 10% net margin out of the current properties in development. P/E or EV/EBITDA, or even DCF may not be a good method in valuing Xinyuan since the real estate sales can be affected by the government policy greatly.
Catalyst
Based on the conference call of the last quarter and the recent real estate development in China, I expect the earning numbers for the next quarter should be a good one.
Disclosure: Long XIN
http://seekingalpha.com/article/937531-the-global-economic-outlook-a-direct-path-to-chinese-equities
The Global Economic Outlook: A Direct Path To Chinese Equities
Disclosure: I am long ACRB.OB. I wrote
this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have
no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in
this article.
I believe that it is now time for many investors to
re-examine their trading and investment strategies. While all of us had
hoped that a permanent and sustainable solution to the eurozone crisis would have been implemented by now, it is increasingly clear that there is no end of the crisis in sight. Longer-term, I believe a "new European order" will emerge, but it could be years. Until then, eurozone economic growth will suffer.While I'm hopeful that the U.S. will eventually deal with the magnitude of its fiscal and economic growth issues, I also don't see solutions occurring in the near future. I believe that the engine of global economic growth for the next five-year period will be China. I firmly also believe that it's not only appropriate, but critical for investors, even those whose focus is trading rather than investing to now take a look at China equities based on long-term investment horizons. There are four key factors that investors need to consider when looking at China:
While there are exceptions, it is difficult for companies in individual countries to grow at a rate greater than the growth rate of their country's economy. With this in mind, let's take a quick look at the eurozone and United States. While many of us have been hopeful that a solution to the eurozone crisis was in sight, it's now apparent that there is no short-term solution. This past summer I attended a speech given by former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. While much of the speech was in Greenspan "Fed Speak," what is relevant, and what I definitely agree with, were three key points:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting eurozone GDP growth at a negative .4% for this year, and a miniscule .2% for next year, with a great variance of growth among individual countries. Economic prospects are not as bleak for the U.S. as those for Europe, but not overly encouraging. My opinion is that due to structural issues in the U.S. economy, unemployment at a rate of around 8% or more has become the new normal, and high unemployment will be with the U.S. for a long time. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the outlook for the U.S. for the next few years is not an optimistic one. The economic prospects for the U.S. are compounded by January's "fiscal cliff," which I believe will be resolved by compromise between the Republicans and Democrats, just in the "nick of time," but result in members of both parties not being happy with the outcome. This month the IMF projected U.S. GDP growth of 2.1% for this year and 2.1% for next year. I believe that with the magnitude of the U.S. economy's structural issues, the prospects of the U.S. returning to economic growth above 3% in the next few years is incredibly unlikely. When you look at the economic growth of the both the U.S. and Europe, all investors must also consider the ugly specter of inflation. The IMF has projected consumer inflation in "advanced economies," which includes the U.S. and Europe, of 2.7% for this year and 1.6% for next year. I believe that the likelihood of a significantly greater rate of inflation is substantial. Keys to future inflation will also be whether the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed are able to significantly shrink their bloated balance sheets as economic growth returns somewhere. The "somewhere" is, I believe, likely to be China and not the U.S. nor the eurozone. When one takes into consideration inflation, the GDP growth prospects for both the eurozone and the U.S., are even bleaker than they at first appear to be. Taking into account inflation and based on the IMF economic growth data, there will be negative real growth for all of this year, as well as for 2012 for both the eurozone and United States. And, I believe that inflation is likely to be substantially higher than the IMF is projecting for 2013 and beyond. The U.S. Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing Program The U.S. Federal Reserve's latest round of quantitative easing or QE3 is creating collateral damage in emerging markets. Whether this was a planned objective is unclear. But, QE3 is providing opportunities for investors who have a global perspective. QE3 consists of the Fed purchasing up to US$40 billion of mortgage debt each month. The Fed has indicated that this will remain in place until the outlook for jobs in the U.S. improves "substantially." With the U.S. being in the midst of the campaigning for the presidential election, China has emerged as a convenient scapegoat. China bashing is part of the daily campaigning rhetoric by both candidates, President Obama and Former Governor Romney. With the strong business and financial integration of the U.S. and China, this rhetoric is definitely not in the best long-term interests of the U.S. I think it's naive to believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve is an independent body, one that is immune to political pressure and public opinion. While differences of opinions have been voiced, many see as a lack of positive impact on U.S. economic growth and on employment from the Fed's quantitative easing programs to date. Opinions are also being voiced that the Fed's quantitative easing programs are reactions to public and political pressure, and that the latest QE3 has more to do with an American-Chinese trade war than the key direct beneficiary being the U.S. economy. It has been suggested by some economists, including Shayne Heffernan that QE3 was more about a Chinese-American trade war than a stimulus program for the U.S. economy. Confirming this position was China's Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai, when he spoke in Brussels on Tuesday. He also indicated that the Fed's latest round of quantitative easing is adding to financial market instability and inflationary pressure in emerging markets. Last Sunday in Tokyo, in response to concerns raised by countries including Russia, Brazil and China, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that it was unclear to the Fed that its highly stimulative monetary policies were hurting emerging economies. Bernanke bluntly called for "certain" emerging economies to allow their currencies to rise, with a consequence being an increase in the cost of their exports to importing countries, including specifically to the U.S. Although he didn't mention China, his comments were definitely directed to China. Economic Prospects for China Earlier this month, the IMF projected China's economic growth for this year at 7.8% and for next year at 8.2%. While 7.8% growth is the weakest in more than three years, industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all accelerated in September. This and other indicators, including recent increases in the prices of certain commodities including iron ore, are signaling that China's growth may be rebounding after a seven-quarter slowdown. It also reflects China's strategy of seeking to rely less on exports for growth, and increasingly more on the country's domestic economy. When you compare China's GDP growth of 7.8% to that of the eurozone or U.S., you have to admit that China's growth is incredible in today's global economic and financial environment. Current and Possible Chinese Stimulus Programs China's recent infrastructure stimulus, totaling US$158 billion, with its focus on the domestic economy, should stimulate consumer spending and the country's important manufacturing sector. This stimulus program is seen as benefiting consumer buying and internal Chinese economic growth as opposed to export-driven industries. Additionally, China's money supply has recently grown as Beijing has pumped more funds into its economy. While questions have been raised as to why the Chinese government hasn't taken more stimulus steps, I believe that the main reason is that existing leadership doesn't want to leave the country's new leadership with a legacy stimulus program that could prove to be problematic for the new government. After the November 8th change in China's senior leadership, I expect additional measures will be taken to stimulate the country's economy, but these may not "kick in" until China's new leadership has time to "get its feet on the ground" and create its own programs, which I see as occurring late fourth quarter of this year, at the earliest, and more likely the first quarter of next year. Conclusion With the continuing economic problems of the U.S. and eurozone, it's appropriate to look at investments in "countries that are working." This immediately leads one to China. I believe that now is the time to take a look at Chinese equities, not from a short-term trading perspective, but instead from a medium- to long-term investment strategy, a strategy for the next three to five years. Emerging market equity funds tracked by EPFR Global Research indicated that the week ended October 17th was the sixth straight week of investment inflows. EPFR also indicated that the total inflows into emerging markets were $21 billion so far this year. EPRF also indicated that inflows into China equity funds also reached a seven-week high. Investors have started returning to China, despite all the inherent issues of investing in emerging markets in general and China, specifically. With the Chinese economy likely having bottomed out, and with the valuations of Chinese companies that trade in the U.S. being very low, I believe that it's appropriate for investors to take a fresh look at Chinese equities that trade in the U.S. This, I believe should be done not from a short-term perspective, but from a longer-term perspective. One of my focuses here at Seeking Alpha has been on analyzing Chinese companies that meet a few general criteria. These include positive trends in revenue and income; low PEs; companies that are focused on internal Chinese demand rather than export; and companies with good growth prospects for the future. Some of the companies that I believe meet these criteria and that I've discussed in detail here at Seeking Alpha include: Xiniya Fashion Inc. (XNY) designs, manufactures and sells men's clothing and accessories. For the quarter ended June 30th, the company showed an increase in revenue of almost 25% to nearly $25 million. But despite the increase in revenue, net income for the quarter was almost $3.2 million, a 43% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2011, due to primarily increased selling and distribution costs. My conclusion is that the company has already started reining in these costs, and that the likely decrease in these costs will be reflected in the company's third and fourth quarter results, making the company a definite candidate to be considered for investment. Its PE is 1.55. China Carbon Graphite (CHGI.OB) is one of the country's leading wholesale suppliers of fine grain and high purity graphite, and a top overall producer of carbon and graphite products. Its revenues for the second quarter were $11.88 million, and its net income was $870,000. Its PE is 4.75. Asia Carbon Industries' (ACRB.PK) principal product is carbon black, which is primarily used as a key raw material in the manufacture of tires. The future of Asia Carbon Industries' business is tied to the growth of the tire industry in China, and to the growth of China's auto industry as well. The company's revenues for the second quarter of this year were $13.195 million, which, on an annualized basis, is slightly more than the $49.12 million the company reported for all of 2011. The company's net income for the second quarter of this year was $1.87 million. Its PE is 1.41. China Green Agriculture Inc. (CGA) produces and distributes humic acid-based compound fertilizers, other varieties of compound fertilizers and agricultural products. All of its products are certified by the Chinese government as "Green Food Production Materials," as defined by the China Green Food Development Center. For the first six months of this year, its sales increased 21% to $217.5 million, net income increased 27.5% to $42 million and the company had earnings per share of $1.56, which beat company guidance. Most importantly, the company provided guidance indicating that it would continue to grow during the rest of this year. The company has forecast revenues of at least $238 million, net income of at least $46.2 million, and earnings per share of at least $1.68 for the full year of 2012. Its PE is 2.18. China Recycling Energy (CREG) provides environmentally friendly waste-to-energy technologies to recycle industrial byproducts for steel mills, cement factories and coke plants in China. Byproducts include heat, steam, pressure, and exhaust to generate large amounts of lower-cost electricity and reduce the need for outside electrical sources. The company's net income in the second quarter was $1.2 million or $0.03 per share, a decrease from $3.7 million, or $0.07 per share, for the second quarter of 2011. Its PE is 3.31. China Automotive Systems (CAAS). Through eight joint ventures in China, the company manufactures and sells power steering components and systems to China's automotive industry, and also exports to North America. The company is the largest power steering manufacturer in China's domestic market. For the second quarter of this year, the company's sales increased 2.8% to $80.4 million. For the second quarter of this year, China Automotive Systems' net income was $8.6 million, up from $7.2 million for the second quarter of 2011. Its PE is 7.11. Other Chinese companies that I've been reviewing, that I believe meet the above criteria and are worthy of investment consideration are SinoCoking Coal and Coke Chemical Industries Inc. (SCOK), Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Ltd. (LPH) and Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (XIN). I intend to provide more in depth analysis of these three companies and their potential for the future here at Seeking Alpha in the coming weeks. Caution There is no question that investing in smaller-capitalization companies, as well as investing in companies in emerging markets, specifically those in China, are not suitable for all investors, and can be risky. It's important that investors thoroughly perform their own due diligence and analyze the potential risk. All of the companies mentioned are U.S. reporting issuers, and subject to the reporting requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, so U.S. transparency and disclosure is available to investors, and most are subject to the listing requirements and standards of the NYSE and Nasdaq. Additional disclosure: I may initiate a position in XIN, LPH and SCOK in the next 72 hours. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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