Friday, 4 January 2013

CES preview: TVs, tablets to be major focus

Mobility to remain dominant theme at Consumer Electronics Show

By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The annual Consumer Electronics Show kicks off next week in Las Vegas, and industry watchers expect the show to remain heavily focused on developments in large-screen, connected TV sets as well as smaller tablet and PC-hybrid devices.

Reuters
Samsung is expected to showcase more high-end TV sets at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show, including a rumored set using Ultra-HD technology.
Makers of large-screen TV sets will be a major presence at the show. Samsung KR:005930 -1.17% , Sony JP:6758 +1.04% , LG KR:066570 +0.25% , Panasonic JP:6752 +2.87% and Sharp JP:6753 -2.64% will hold press events on Monday to showcase their latest and upcoming offerings. These are expected to include more ultra-thin sets and improved software interfaces for connecting to the Internet. See full streaming coverage of CES
Another area to watch will be so-called “ultra HD,” meaning TV sets that offer up to four times the screen resolution of current high-definition sets. Sony and LG have already introduced such sets, and Samsung, Sharp and other manufacturers are expected to showcase these types of products at CES, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week.
But CES has also become notable for who is not there. Apple AAPL -2.60% —one of the largest and most profitable consumer electronics makers on the planet — has never been a strong presence at the event. And this year will also be the first without Microsoft MSFT -1.34% acting effectively as show anchor. The software giant announced last year that it plans to hold its own events to showcase its products.
Ramon Llamas of IDC told MarketWatch that larger companies are favoring their own forums for launching their devices. Also, smartphone makers typically favor the Mobile World Congress show in Barcelona in late February for big product launches.
“I’m seeing a lot more people looking at CES and saying that this is not the time to showcase our new flagship,” Llamas said. “There’s so much going on that it’s easy to get drowned out.”
Amazon.com AMZN +0.10% and Google Inc. GOOG +2.04% are two other companies with a growing presence in the consumer electronics market who don’t participate at CES on a formal basis.

What to expect in digital music

Jeff Hughes, chief executive of Omnifone, joins Simon Constable to look at what's next in digital music, including growth in subscription services.
“While we are *NOT* expecting any new blockbuster products to come out of CES 2013, many vendors are likely to showcase technology advancements in ultrabooks, tablets as well as smartphones,” Brian Marshall of ISI Group wrote in an email on Friday.
Sarah Rotman Epps of Forrester Research told MarketWatch that CES has become a more important meeting ground between companies from different industries who are looking to step up their use of consumer technology in their businesses. Companies in the media, automotive and healthcare spaces have a growing presence at CES.
“These are companies whose core products are not technology, but feel that technology is the key to their success,” she said.
Much of the visibility of the show has shifted to semiconductor companies, which make the crucial microprocessors that power a fast-growing array of smarter, connected products.
Most notable will be Qualcomm QCOM -1.39% , which makes chips used in cellphones and smartphones and has become a growing player in tablets and other areas. Paul Jacobs, CEO of the San Diego-based company, has taken the opening keynote slot on Monday night that has been held for the past several years by of Microsoft CEOs Bill Gates and later Steve Ballmer.
Romit Shah of Nomura said Qualcomm “is likely to discuss its offering around mobile computing platforms.” In a note to clients on Friday, he predicted the company will feature “numerous product launches” around Windows 8, a version of which is designed to run on the ARM—based mobile processors that the company makes.

Mossberg looks ahead at 2013

Walt Mossberg lists four personal technology items that he says may be huge trends in 2013, including the perfection of the smart TV, cheaper smartphones, and new fitness gadgets.
But archrival Intel INTC -0.87% will also be a major player at the show. Intel is hosting a press event on Monday that is expected to focus on the company’s efforts to get more of its chip products into mobile devices such as smartphones and laptops.
Intel spokesman Bill Calder said the company will also talk about the “ultrabook” category it pioneered, referring to ultrathin, Windows-based laptop computers. Another category the company plans to feature is the so-called hybrid, or “convertible” space that combines the features of a laptop and tablet.
“There is a lot of innovation going on right now between the tablet and ultrabook space,” Calder told MarketWatch. “Touch is big.”
Some device makers are able to piggyback on others efforts. PC makers Hewlett-Packard HPQ +0.29% , Dell DELL +0.27% and Lenovo HK:992 +2.74% will not have major booths at the show, but are likely to have new products showcased by Intel, Qualcomm and Nvidia NVDA +3.30% .
Dan Gallagher is MarketWatch's technology editor, based in San Francisco. Follow him on Twitter @MWDanGallagher.

Thursday, 3 January 2013

Yum, McDonald's respond after China chicken report

new
 
Dec. 19, 2012, 3:39 a.m. EST  


 
 By Barbara Kollmeyer
 
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- Yum Brands Inc. YUM +0.67% and McDonald's Corp. MCD +0.51% said they're making efforts to ensure food safety after a report by China Central Television that those companies may have sold chicken that was tainted, according to media reports Wednesday. State broadcaster CCT reportedly said two suppliers -- Liuhe Group and Yingtai Food Group Co. -- provided chickens that may have been fed antibiotics and growth hormones, reports said. Yum reportedly said in an e-mailed statement that it takes "food safety very seriously," while McDonald's said on its Chinese microblog a day prior that all chicken used in restaurants is tested at a third-party laboratory. Yum stopped buying from Liuhe in August, Bloomberg reported, but a spokesperson for the company didn't respond to requests for comment on Yingtai. 

Billionaire Mandel puts dollars on Dollar Tree

new
 
Dec. 13, 2012, 9:43 a.m. EST 


 
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About Meena Krishnamsetty

Ms. Krishnamsetty is editor and co-founder of Insider Monkey, a finance website that provides free insider trading and hedge-fund stock-holdings data. Her articles draw upon the research and analytics of co-founder Dr. Ian Dogan, Insider Monkey's research director, who holds a Ph.D. in financial economics with a specialization in insider trading. Dogan has provided consulting services to institutional investors and hedge funds, and managed a $200+ million fund using a strategy he developed tracking insider transactions. Dogan authored the insider trading chapter of the soon-to- be-published “The Handbook of Investment Anomalies” by Zacks Investment Research. Prior to Insider Monkey, Krishnamsetty worked for Bloomberg Television, CNBC, NPR and in risk management at Marsh & McLennan. Krishnamsetty has an M.S. in Journalism from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism.
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At the beginning of July, billionaire Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital did not own any shares of Dollar Tree DLTR -0.45% . However, during the third quarter of the year, the Tiger Cub's fund initiated a position in the stock, and by the end of September, Lone Pine owned 3.9 million shares (see Mandel's latest stock picks) . The hedge fund has apparently kept right on buying, and according to a recent 13G, owns 11.8 million shares, giving it 5.2% of the total shares outstanding.
Dollar Tree wasn't the only dollar store in Mandel's portfolio at the end of the third quarter: He and his team reported 8.3 million shares of Dollar General DG -1.03% in their 13F filing. It looks to us like the investment team at Lone Pine feels very optimistic about the industry as a whole.
In the fiscal quarter ending in October — the third of Dollar Tree's fiscal year — revenue rose 8% compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year. Comparable net sales were up 1.6%, as much of the company's growth came from an increase in store count. Still, Dollar Tree reported a remarkable 49% increase in earnings; we would say that it's able to control costs even as it opens more locations, and with margins actually increasing it doesn't appear to have achieved maximum market penetration yet.
Dollar Tree, interestingly, is actually down 4% in the last year as sentiment toward dollar stores has cooled. It's certainly possible that an increase in consumer confidence and spending will drive customers toward higher-priced retail, but the combination of growth and a falling stock price has left the stock at only 16 times trailing earnings. It wouldn't take much more growth for the company to justify that figure, and Dollar Tree could certainly be a good value, even if its net income begins growing much more slowly.
In addition, as a dollar store, Dollar Tree doesn't care much about the state of the overall economy; its beta is 0.2. As a result, investors would be somewhat protected from a downside surprise. Another interesting point is that one of the company's board members was buying the stock in mid-November.
A number of other hedge funds saw an opportunity in Dollar Tree during the third quarter of 2012. Fellow Tiger Cub John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital increased its own stake by 21%, and closed September with 4.6 million shares in its portfolio (check out more stocks Griffin was buying) . Renaissance Technologies, founded by billionaire Jim Simons, also added shares. Find more stock picks from Renaissance Technologies .
Dollar Tree was one of two dollar stores to make our list of the most popular retail stores among hedge funds for the third quarter (see the full rankings) . The other was Dollar General, which actually won the number-one slot. Dollar General, which as we've noted was another Mandel pick, trades very similarly to Dollar Tree: its trailing P/E is just a bit higher at 17, and both companies are valued at 14 times forward earnings estimates. Dollar General also recorded close to 50% earnings growth in its most recent quarter vs. a year earlier. It's tough to pick between these two stocks given how similar they are.
Of course, there's another self-proclaimed dollar store — Family Dollar Stores FDO -12.13% — and hedge fund favorites Wal-Mart Stores and Target Corporation are sources of competition as well. Family Dollar doesn't seem like as good a deal as the companies we've previously discussed. Its growth rates are lower, and its trailing P/E is higher, at 20. Wal-Mart and Target are a slightly different class of retailer. They are, of course, considerably larger in terms of market cap; they are more closely tied to the economy, with betas in the 0.4-0.5 range. Partly as a result of their larger size, their growth rates are lower but still quite respectable.
With trailing P/E multiples in the 14-15 range (Target has a small discount) it's possible that the dollar stores' superior growth rates makes them better buys at their small premium to these more established retailers. Billionaire Warren Buffett and Bill Gates' Foundation Trust have the two largest positions among the billionaires we track ( see Warren Buffett's top picks ).
We can see why Lone Pine likes Dollar Tree. While there really isn't much to distinguish it from Dollar General, these two companies are growing nicely and don't look that expensive relative to the big boxes — and they're certainly much better values than Amazon.com . We'd be interested in examining those two dollar stores more closely.
Insider Monkey is a finance website that provides free insider trading and hedge fund stock-holdings data. It tracks more than 400 equity hedge funds. Follow it on Twitter @insidermonkey

Most Bang for Your Buck: Catching the Asia Comeback

Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Adam Johnson discusses how to catch the Asia comeback. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)



http://www.bloomberg.com/video/most-bang-for-your-buck-catching-the-asia-comeback-Idrt7WmRQuqSRAVvTIdf1w.html




Will retailers rebound after weak holiday season?


DANIEL WAGNER
Published: Dec 30, 2012


http://www.apnews.com/ap/db_6414/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=EK6LldOu&src=cat&detailindex=1
 
WASHINGTON (AP) - As signs emerge that holiday sales this year grew at the weakest pace since 2008, investors are dumping retail stocks. Analysts are crowing about the missing "consumer engine" without which the economy may stagnate.
Many fear that the season's weakness will reverberate throughout the economy: Stores will be saddled with excess merchandise, forcing them to slash prices and accept razor-thin profit margins. Demand will soften for goods up and down the supply chain, leading eventually to a decline in orders for factory goods and weaker manufacturing. Growth will slow.
Yet there are plenty of reasons to believe that these fears are overblown, some market-watchers argue. Auto sales are strong, as are some measures of consumer sentiment. Home values are rising, leaving fewer Americans on the brink of foreclosure and helping many feel more financially secure.
Above all, they point out, there is nothing permanent about the "fiscal cliff," a set of tax hikes and spending cuts that will automatically take effect at the beginning of 2013 if lawmakers are unable to reach a deal to avert it.
When the fiscal issue is addressed and demand bounces back, these contrarians argue, beaten-down retail stocks may turn out to be this year's best after-Christmas bargain.
"There may be some caution ahead of the fiscal cliff" because of uncertainty about tax rates, "but it's more of a road bump than any fundamental weakness," says David Kelly, chief global strategist for JP Morgan Funds.
He notes that a daily tracker of consumer sentiment, the Rasmussen Consumer Index, rose Friday to 98.9, the highest level measured since January 2008. Other measures of consumer sentiment appear weaker, but Kelly believes the Rasmussen data is more reliable because it is updated daily. Most other indices rely on monthly surveys.
The fiscal cliff isn't the only reason consumers slowed down in November and December. Americans were buffeted by a series of events that made them more likely to stay home.
Superstorm Sandy caused steep holiday sales declines in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic that made the national picture appear far weaker. The presidential election distracted people in November, the Newtown massacre in December. And the rising din about Washington's current budget impasse left many people unsure what their 2013 household budgets will look like.
The outcome: Holiday sales of electronics, clothing, jewelry and home goods in the two months before Christmas increased just 0.7 percent compared with last year, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, which tracks holiday spending across all payment methods. That's the weakest holiday performance since 2008, when sales dropped several percent as the cresting financial crisis pushed the economy into a deep recession.
For many, the early results were a worrisome sign of things to come. Jeff Sica, president and chief investment officer of SICA Wealth Management in Morristown, N.J., called the retail sales result "onerous" and "a negative overhang on the market."
Still, the nation's largest retail trade group, the National Retail Federation, is sticking to its forecast that total sales for November and December will be up 4.1 percent from last year. A clearer picture will emerge next week as retailers like Macy's and Target report monthly sales.
That didn't keep investors from reacting hastily to the grim early data. Retail stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.4 percent this month, while the broader index declined only 1 percent. Computer and electronics retailers fared the worst, sinking 10.3 percent.
Not so fast, says Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist with ING Investment Management in New York. She favors the consumer discretionary sector, represented in the S&P 500 by Home Depot, Amazon.com Inc., Target Corp. and Ford Motor Co., among others.
"The consumer has shown surprising resilience throughout this tepid recovery and we believe will continue to do so," Cavanaugh says. The housing turnaround "will further aid consumer and consumer confidence," she says.
Sales of new homes rose in November to the fastest pace in two and a half years, the government said Thursday. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index also rose last month to its highest level in two and a half years, the group said Friday.
Consumer spending, to be sure, is a critical indicator of economic activity. It accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, so a true slowdown could have a painful ripple effect. That's especially true in the final two months of the year, which contribute as much as 40 percent of annual sales for many retailers.
Some analysts are warning that the pain for retailers has only just begun. Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions, says revenue results and fourth-quarter earnings forecasts, due out early next month, pose another threat to retail stocks. Sozzi recommends betting against some weaker brands, including teen apparel chain Aeropostale.
Assuming stocks continue to sink because of weak guidance and "general market angst," Sozzi said in a note to clients Friday, "the moment to potentially entertain this sector from a long perspective will be sometime before earnings season begins in mid-February."
According to Kelly and other market bulls, consumers haven't meaningfully slowed their spending. They're merely holding off as they wait for lawmakers to craft a deal that would prevent some of the scheduled tax increases.
"There's a difference between confidence and spending attitudes," Kelly says. "People are generally feeling more confident because home prices are going up."
Kelly and others believe that a deal on the fiscal cliff is all but inevitable - eventually. He acknowledges that the waiting could be painful for consumers, retailers and most other businesses, but says, "If we don't get a fiscal cliff deal, then we'll wait and get a fiscal cliff deal."
Analysts who doubt that spending will bounce back quite so quickly argue that consumers are still paying down debt and have less interest in shopping sprees, in part because median incomes are falling.
Despite the stronger housing market and other positive signs, "they're going to take the opportunity to retrench, rather than buy stuff," says Derrick Irwin, portfolio manager for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.
Peter Tchir, manager of the hedge fund TF Market Advisors, says consumers may be shopping less because economic turbulence has helped people reassess the value of what they consume.
"We've overconsumed for so long ... how much do you really need to add?" he says. "To some extent, it's healthy for Americans to live within their means. But clearly, this week, it's not great for retail stocks."
___
AP Business Writer Christina Rexrode and AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.
Daniel Wagner can be reached at www.twitter.com/wagnerreports
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
McDonald's (MCD) shares took a hit in early November when the company reported that its October global comparable store sales declined by 1.8%, marking the first such slide in 9 years. A good portion of the decline was surely economically driven. Some of it was also temporary, given that November's sales later showed a same-store sales increase of 2.4%. Still, and despite McDonald's recent share price revival, I would continue to sell the stock on a very important alpha driver.
In my expert view as an equity analyst, McDonald's is coming under important attack by a new and credible threat within its U.S. core market. It's a threat that I believe is not yet understood well by other analysts, media nor the market, and so should be an alpha-critical driver of the shares in the years ahead. It is structural in its essence and long-lasting in its impact, and it's one that McDonald's itself seems to have recognized internally and is attempting to mitigate. The company is facing a changing competitive landscape and industry structure within the United States due to the rise of the "better burger" and proprietors popping up everywhere to serve an increasing variety of them. McDonald's is thus challenged to defend its home turf, or go the way of many a mature company that have failed to do so, out to pasture.
Chart forMcDonald
The Little Discussed Calendar Anomaly
McDonald's shares dropped 10.7% from their mid-October closing high set above $94 to their mid-November low set at approximately $84. The catalyst of the decline was obviously the company's October same-store sales, which reflected deterioration across all of the company's regional segments. One factor that affected all markets and that many media outlets and analysts have failed to note for its importance was the fact that this year's October measured up poorly against the prior-year period, while this year's November was at advantage over the prior year. That's because this year's October included one less Saturday and Sunday (busy days) and one more Tuesday and Wednesday (less busy), while this year's November included one less Tuesday and Wednesday (less busy) and one more Thursday and Friday (busier). The impacts of the monthly differences were substantial, with October's differences driving down sales this year and November's driving them higher. This could entirely explain the directional shift in the last two months of sales, but it does not explain the gradually slowing pace of growth. Maturing companies always experience gradually slowing growth, but in some cases, market share is also threatened by disruptive competition.
Operating SegmentOct. Same-Store SalesNov. Same-Store Sales
United States-2.2%+2.5%
Europe-2.2%+1.4%
Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa (APMEA)-2.4%+0.6%
Some Not "Lovin' It"
Obviously, the downturn in European sales can be explained by the decline of economic activity in Europe, which for some markets is still deteriorating. That was seen in the company's European sales recovery in November; McDonald's noted an offsetting weight from a hampered German market. The company's pricing strategy abroad is somewhat different than its bargain burger game plan employed in North America. So with the economies of Europe deteriorating, including now economic failings in linchpin EU states Germany and France, the company's regional sales spiral there is understandable. It should also be cyclical in nature and thus a matter that should be overcome with time.
There were also other, more difficult to measure factors that may have played roles in the October decline within individual markets. For instance, October sales within the APMEA segment may have been impacted by roused anti-American sentiment in the Middle East and parts of North Africa and Asia due to the controversial film Innocence of Muslims, a theoretical effect that we discussed in late September. Perhaps a lingering impact from the protests is seen again in November's slower relative same-store sales growth within the affected APMEA segment against the faster growth in the company's European and U.S. markets.
The Value Meal Advantage
Without a doubt, every company's most significant challenge today is cyclical in nature. The laboring global economy continues to weigh against the performance of most companies across competitive markets and is indifferent to monthly anomalies. Though in this regard, the value offerings of McDonald's set it in the category with those contrarian ideas that benefit in tough times as others struggle. It's why Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have thrived in recent years, while department store rivals like J.C. Penney (JCP) have been greatly challenged.
In fact, the company attributed its November revival to its Dollar Menu and promotional efforts tied to the Cheddar Bacon Onion sandwich and its seasonal and specialty beverages. The company also noted the importance of its breakfast business and the overall value provided by its offerings through the month. In tough times like these, McDonald's is supposed to pick up business from the casual dining companies that Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Brinker International (EAT) operate. There's another factor today, though, which I believe is going to play an increasingly important role in the performance of McDonald's and its shares.
The Better Burger Challenge
What I see happening in the United States versus the company's other markets is something relatively new and ultimately more important. A vulnerability in the fast food segment and more specifically a threat to the bargain burger flippers, including McDonald's, Burger King (BKW) and Wendy's (WEN), has been uncovered and is being exploited.
I believe proven demand for a "better burger" signals an important secular change to the company's industry structure and competitive environment in America. This industry issue threatens McDonald's directly, and could mean a shift in market share away from all the basic burger joints serving low-cost meals. Thus, I believe the experts whom I've seen attributing recent sales fluctuations and share volatility in MCD to the efforts of long-time rivals like Burger King and Wendy's are missing the real issue.
The Big Problem Facing McDonald's
While Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) has been announcing its differentiating factor in its name since its founding in 1969, it seems entrepreneurs have finally noticed an economic value-added opportunity hiding right in front of our collective salivating mouths. Now big, tasty and juicy burgers are drawing in customers who used to go to McDonald's but who were always willing to pay more for a better burger, or at least a different burger served up in an environment other than the colorful iconic McDonald's franchises that now cover the world over.
There is certainly traction in the "better burger" segment, as evidenced by the popularity and growth of new brands including Shake Shack and Five Guys. But the story and opportunity extend far beyond those two names, with brands burning new ground across the country. I can see very clearly in my own neighborhood on Manhattan's Upper East Side that there is a new buzz about burgers.
There are chains boasting "organic burgers," which you might think true burger lovers wouldn't care about or might even avoid, but not after the documentary Food Inc. and the widely publicized "pink slime" issue. I don't know anybody who would knowingly eat pink slime, and so suddenly organic meat matters to more people than just health nuts. Others offer exotic meat burgers like lamb, bison and ostrich for those truly seeking something different. I've tried both bison and the lean ostrich meat over the course of my meat-loving life, and have found both tasty. Shops like the Shake Shack location on the Upper East Side of Manhattan are doing blockbuster business. In fact, I know one successful pizza shop operator on the Upper East Side who is now opening up burger joints in the neighborhood serving up better burgers.
In Manhattan's fishbowl test market, I see new burger places popping up everywhere. I can walk to Shake Shack's 86th Street spot without much effort. So as, where I once had to walk five blocks to find both Burger King and McDonald's locations, I now have at least five other specialty burger options within the same distance. The burger joints are basically everywhere now, and they're all taking market share from McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's and friends.
It seems people have always been willing to pay up for a juicy better burger that costs a little more, but it's always been at diners and family style restaurants like Denny's (DENN). The thing is that people rarely venture to those types of restaurants for a burger specifically. Now hungry meat-eaters have a slew of restaurants to choose from providing a variety of premium quality, organic and exotic burgers to satisfy the needs of those seeking something special.
The threat to McDonald's is relatively new, and portends to bring structural change to the burger industry niche. What was an oligopoly is suddenly dynamically competitive, where price loses some of its pull for a good many consumers. McDonald's is not asleep at the wheel though. You can see that it has recognized the threat internally and has shifted its strategic focus to face the challenge.
I'm sure the renovation of the old legacy McDonald's store layout, making it new and comfortable for more than just children, is a move toward its new competitors' efforts to reach grownups. McDonald's work behind the counter has been as aggressive, with an executive chef geared menu renovation taking shape over the last decade. Promotional sandwiches like the Cheddar Bacon Onion and the McRib are innovative efforts to meet the new meat seekers. McDonald's even spells it out in its commentary for discerning readers. In its November sales release, the company discusses "optimizing its menu, modernizing the customer experience and broadening accessibility to its brand." The company continues, saying that all this is to meet the day's "economic and competitive challenges." Optimizing its menu means providing its own "better burgers" and other specialty sandwiches and beverages, a move away from the cheapest burger competition it has waged against Burger King over the last several years. By broadening its brand, the company hopes to appeal to the less price sensitive burger buyer.
Unfortunately for MCD shareholders, the McDonald's brand may be too well established to fend off the up and comers just now making a name for themselves. If that is the case, the nation's most important food service employer may do better to just buy one of its new challengers outright. Sometimes it's better to buy a brand to reach a new niche than to extend an established brand. Obviously, this is not likely to happen unless the company realizes market share loss, and determines it is unable to stave off the competitive threat via its current menu and store enhancements. Thus, over the near term, I expect MCD's historical valuation to prove unreliable as a forecasting tool. Instead, MCD should test old low values, and trade below its mean valuation.
According to data provided at Forbes.com, MCD trades at a premium to its five-year average low P/E ratio and its lowest P/E ratio over that same period. MCD is just a bit off its five-year average P/E ratio currently.
MCD Valuation and Implied Price
Implied prices and price targets are based on analyst consensus EPS estimates for 2012 and 2013 of $5.31 & $5.78 as found at Yahoo Finance.
PERIODP/EImplied Current ValueImplied Price TargetImplied Appreciation or Depreciation
Trailing 12-Months16.587.58*95.37+8.9%
5-Year Average19.5103.55112.71+29%
5-Yr. Ave. Low14.677.5384.39-3.6%
5-Yr. Lowest12.264.7870.52-19%
* $87.58 is the price taken as the current price and used in all appreciation/depreciation to target price calculations.
Because of a media blitz favoring McDonald's, highlighted by a positive push for MCD by heavily followed pundit Jim Cramer, the stock might see more upside before the better burger buries it. However, I expect it will get cheaper on a valuation basis as my thesis is realized by a thus far inattentive analyst community and as legacy-loyal portfolio manager favor fades away.
Old money will stick with the stock near-term based on its discount to historical average value. As a result, outsized gains (alpha) should be available for those willing to take short position against the stock. The perennially positive portfolio manager might do fine to buy the shares of newcomer rivals as they undoubtedly begin to go public over the next several years, or consider seeking private equity investment or franchise opportunity in start-ups. I believe that current holders of MCD should at least hedge their risk.
My study of historical P/E ratios shows the stock is still short of its 5-year average, with 29% in capital appreciation upside if it were to reach that average mark in 2013. That's the appeal for the legacy interests, but the argument misses the new threat, which in my estimation should lead capital out of the stock with momentum as the threat becomes apparent in regular in operating results. While it may be much to expect the stock to quickly fall to its lowest P/E mark of the last five years of 12.2, it should easily find the five-year average low P/E of 14.6 if a bit of evidence of market share loss materializes. So, in my estimation, if this realization occurs in 2013, the stock could depreciate in value by between 3.6% and 19% over the coming year. If it takes more than a year for the evidence to turn up, well then the stock should still underperform the market over that multi-year period. Given the outlined risk, I would definitely look to other names for relative industry exposure.
Relative to earnings per share growth, the stock also appears easily overvalued, even after considering its dividend yield of 3.5%. Analysts covered by Yahoo Finance agree that the company should grow at an 8.8% average rate over the next five years. Adjusting for the yield, we can use a figure of 12.3% as the denominator in our P/E-to-growth estimate. At that mark, the five-year average low P/E of 12.2X looks most appropriate for those seeking better than average market performance. More importantly, the P/E on the 2013 EPS estimate of $5.78 measures 15.2X, giving us a PEG ratio of 1.2. That's expensive for a stock whose operating performance might come into question next year.
Conclusion and Key Risks
The "better burger" issue is an important consideration for McDonald's investors today and poses a threat to historical valuation precedence. Given that threat and the ground already recovered since the November same-store sales report, I would not add to holdings of MCD today. On the fluffy support of interests in the stock and pundits lacking understanding of the changing industry dynamics MCD must contend with, and given that it could benefit further from a fiscal cliff relief rally, I would look to any further gains over the next few weeks as opportunity to sell out of current holdings. For those capable and willing of taking short interests, I would suggest them on such strength. Finally, remember that MCD's greatest support today is derived from its Asian opportunity, which is a risk short interests must consider and contend with. However, even that opportunity comes into question when Iran is finally engaged and on any disruption to energy flow into the Asia Pacific region.